ETHOnline 2026 · Arc · Agentic Economy

Clinical Quantum Exchange

Autonomous agents are paid in USDC for clinical assessment work — and only for work that survives being read.

Arc Testnet 5042002Circle walletsQuantinuum NexusNHS waiting lists

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The problem

Assessment happens. Evidence of it does not.

  • Waiting-list questions are analysed constantly — by analysts, vendors and now models.
  • What survives is a number in a slide, not the engine, the shot count or the seed.
  • A result you cannot re-derive is indistinguishable from one that was never run.
  • So the money follows confidence, not legibility.
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The idea

Pay for the receipt, not the answer

What the exchange buys

An assessment whose engine, shots, seed and commit are all present, so a stranger can re-decide the verdict without asking us anything.

What it refuses to buy

A number without its envelope. Losing is paid in full; being unreadable pays nothing.

That is the only incentive in the system, and it points at legibility rather than at optimism.

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How a job runs

The order is the product

policy check
   -> agent identity           ENS: is this the right payee, for this intent?
   -> human authority          World ID: one unique human released the budget
   -> device confirmation      Ledger: the release parameters tapped on hardware
   -> classical floor          recorded FIRST, never revised after
   -> dequantization gate      can a classical surrogate reproduce it?
   -> quantum leg              a measurement, or assessed-blocked
   -> receipt grading          PASS / GAP / STRUCTURAL / FAIL
   -> post-quantum seal        SLH-DSA signature, verified on the spot
   -> anchor on Arc            written BEFORE money moves
   -> USDC settlement          only against a PASS receipt
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The agents

Four wallets, four jobs, hard ceilings

Trust Agent

Holds the pathway budget, posts jobs, releases payment

fee 0%

cap 0.50 USDC / job

Baseline Agent

Runs the classical floor and the dequantization gate — always first

fee 30%

cap 0.12 USDC / job

Nexus Agent

Submits circuits to Quantinuum Nexus and returns a graded receipt

fee 55%

cap 0.15 USDC / job

Registry Agent

Anchors the receipt hash on Arc and serves the settlement ledger

fee 15%

cap 0.04 USDC / job

The Baseline Agent is paid for winning. A classical method that beats the quantum leg is exactly what the exchange commissioned.

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The receipt

Two verdicts, four grades

Every receipt carries

engine · backend qualifier · shots · seed · commit · tolerance 4·√(0.5/shots) · measured value · Bell control

Mechanism and performance are separate columns. The second never inherits the first’s PASS.

Grades

PASS — complete and consistent — the only payable grade

GAP — information missing; not the same as a false claim

STRUCTURAL — no recognised envelope attached at all

FAIL — envelope present and contradicted

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The lane that did not run

Endoscopy: assessed-blocked, published at full size

Across four sites, how should endoscopy slots be allocated so no site holds a disproportionate backlog?

Needs a 32-qubit register. The account’s emulator ceiling is 26 qubits, so no execution lane exists.

Outcome

GAP · 0.00 USDC

No number was produced by quietly shrinking the problem. The classical floor — maximum site imbalance of 4 patients — stands unchallenged.

A limit that stops a run is a finding. Publishing it small is how a project starts hiding.

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Gates added after being caught out

What stops a false win

The floor is a family

Plain, balanced, resampled, tuned — the bar is the best of them. A win over an untuned baseline reads UNPOWERED-FLOOR and pays nothing.

Fitness before spend

A 20,000-record classical oracle ceiling of 0.40 against a 0.80 bar. Weak signal, not scarce data: unfit-cohort, no quantum budget released.

Pre-register, then amend

Bars fixed before compute, amendments listed. An amendment fixes the tool; it never moves the target.

Negatives kept at full size

A 17-qubit estimator lost ~33% of its signal and missed its degraded bar. Published as sIII-FAIL, not re-run until it sealed.

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The rail · Arc

Anchor first, then the money

5042002

Arc Testnet — USDC is the gas token, six decimals, no paymaster

4 wallets

Circle developer-controlled: Trust, Baseline, Nexus, Registry — no EOA, no funded private key

Anchor → pay

ReceiptAnchor stores the receipt hash with signal, engine and shots before any transfer

A method that loses still gets paid, and the record says it lost. An unanchored receipt is not payable at all — every settlement and anchor is checkable on Arcscan.

ReceiptAnchor 0xd924f134e69f678e09bd31394f975b3cdbd2f52f

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Switch to the app

Run a job

Seven steps land in order, the receipt is graded in front of you, the hash is anchored, then the USDC moves.

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The boundary

What is real, what is simulated

Running for real

Pathway board · policy gate · classical floors · dequantization gate · receipt grading · SLH-DSA sealing · USDC settlement on Arc Testnet · ReceiptAnchor contract writes · every hash checkable on Arcscan

Simulated, and labelled as such

The MSK pathway now runs live on the Quantinuum Nexus H2-Emulator — emulator tier, never a QPU. Other quantum legs remain committed earlier runs. World ID credentials are deterministic stand-ins while the sandbox entitlement is pending.

Cohorts are synthetic. No patient-level data, no diagnosis, no efficacy or outcome claim.

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Why the receipt is sealed

The quantum gap is closing

Logical qubits demonstrated

96

Needed to break ECDSA

824

Gap remaining

728

  • Circle Research Quantum Tracker, read 10 September 2026. Circle is the source; no endorsement implied.
  • Every receipt digest is signed with SLH-DSA-SHA2-128f (NIST FIPS 205) and verified before it is anchored or paid.
  • Arc supports SLH-DSA today; the Arc transaction carrying the anchor is still ECDSA-signed.
  • Post-quantum at the evidence layer, classical underneath — stated, not claimed away.
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Sizing before submitting

What a job costs, before it runs

The credit formula

HQC = 5 + (N1q + 10*N2q + 5*Nm) / 5000 * C

The +5 is per circuit, so for small circuits the program count dominates the bill before a single shot is taken.

Sized by hand

3,751

Sized by the model

885

Credits. Same question, same cohort, same verdict discipline.

  • Gate counts are read off the compiled circuit — no hand-typed estimate.
  • A batch outside the envelope is refused with the number named, before anything uploads.
  • Envelope and limits: Reviewer feedback from a Quantinuum engineer.
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How this was actually run

The chat channel is not the evidence layer

  • Four roles, four separate agents — Orchestrate, research, analyse, synthesise — mapped one to one onto Trust, Nexus, Baseline and Registry. Each role carries its own identity and its own memory. They are not one agent wearing four hats, and a role never grades its own work.
  • Memory is the protocol, not the chat log — Every scheduled run compares today's findings against what is already remembered and reports only what changed. Replaying a conversation is not recall; a searchable record of what was already established is.
  • Cadence beats heroics — One small job, one digest, one difference against yesterday. A daily micro-win on a schedule produced more usable evidence than any weekend sprint, because each run left a receipt behind it.
  • Credential hygiene is not optional — Tokens never travel in a group chat and rotate the moment they are exposed. Clinical text stays on the local machine rather than being handed to a hosted model.
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Identity · ENS

A payment rail cannot say who it paid

Name

Four ENSv2 Sepolia subnames under clinicalquantum.eth — one per agent.

Record

ENSIP-25 records carry the Arc actor address and the intent that agent may be paid for.

Check

The payee is resolved through the Universal Resolver and compared to the receipt. A mismatch blocks settlement.

The shared PermissionedResolver refused our writes, so we deployed our own AgentResolver and wired it through the ENSv2 registry.

AgentResolver 0xc305afd781febf64e84f83ce4eb38f4001352a4f · Sepolia 11155111

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Authority · World ID

No agent releases a budget on nobody's authority

  • One unique human authorises the release, bound to that one pathway — never rebound to another.
  • Only the nullifier hash is kept. No image, no name, no biometric and no wallet reaches the app.
  • The nullifier folds into the receipt digest, so the SLH-DSA seal and the Arc anchor cover the authorisation, not just the result.
  • No human, no settlement: the run still executes and publishes at full size, and pays 0.00 USDC.

Selfie Check is an abuse-prevention and authorisation signal only — never identity, competence or clinical authority. Sandbox entitlement pending, so demo credentials are labelled simulated.

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Ledger Agent Stack

A tap between autonomy and the budget

  • The agents decide autonomously; the last irreversible step needs a human hand on hardware.
  • The enrolled Ledger signs the exact release parameters — pathway, budget, chain, quantum leg — shown on its own screen. No tap, no settlement; the run publishes and pays nobody.
  • The signature is recovered server-side against the enrolled signer address, so a re-pointed or replayed approval is refused by construction.
  • The device approval is hashed into the receipt digest: the SLH-DSA seal and the Arc anchor commit to the tap as well.
  • The Key Ring (LKRP) seals the Circle entity secret and Nexus token under keys derived from the seed — the agent requests a scoped, short-lived capability and never holds the key.
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What is next

Money already moves

  • Live today: Circle developer-controlled wallets settle USDC and write ReceiptAnchor on Arc Testnet, every hash verifiable on Arcscan.
  • The MSK pathway ran live on the Quantinuum Nexus H2-Emulator with its own job id; the receipt rules did not change.
  • Deployment boundary: attestation and capacity planning. Not a clinical system, not a triage tool.
  • Receipts are SLH-DSA sealed; the Arc anchor transaction is still ECDSA-signed, and that leg stays an open hazard.
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